It is a question that comes up regularly in surf forums, at beach barbecues, and in newspaper headlines after a serious incident: are there more sharks in Australian waters than there used to be? The answer is more complicated, and more interesting, than the question implies.
What the Encounter Data Actually Shows
Documented shark encounters in Australian waters have increased over recent decades. The International Shark Attack File consistently records Australia among the top three nations globally for unprovoked shark bites, and 2025 saw a higher-than-average year for fatalities, with ISAF noting that most of these occurred in Australian waters.
But increased encounters are not the same as increased shark populations, and conflating the two produces bad analysis and worse policy.
White Shark Numbers: The Surprising 2025 Finding
The most significant recent development in Australian shark population science points in the opposite direction from the "more sharks everywhere" narrative. A major 2025 genomic study funded by the NSW Department of Primary Industries, using DNA from over 600 Australian white sharks, found that eastern and southern Australian white sharks form a single breeding population, and that population contains fewer than 500 breeding animals spanning the entire eastern and southern coastline.
A separate earlier analysis found that the eastern population, covering southern Victoria through to central Queensland, contained approximately 750 adult animals.
These are very small numbers. The researchers noted this raises significant conservation concerns: a small, closely related population is inherently more vulnerable to disease, to random demographic events, and to the continued pressures of human activity including bycatch.
White sharks are not multiplying uncontrollably. The population that exists is small, protected under Australian law since 1999, and fragile.
So Why Are Encounters Increasing?
The research is clear that the primary driver of increasing human-shark encounters is not a growing shark population. It is a growing human population in the water.
The number of Australians surfing, swimming, diving, kayaking, and engaging with the ocean recreationally has increased substantially over recent decades. More people in the water means more potential for encounters, even if shark numbers remain stable or decline. The Florida Program for Shark Research has consistently noted this dynamic in its annual ISAF reports.
Contributing factors specific to Australian waters include:
- Coastal development pushing more people into new breaks and more remote locations, some of which have significant large shark activity and little or no beach patrol infrastructure.
- Climate-driven range shifts. Water temperature changes associated with a strengthening East Australian Current are moving prey species — and the sharks that follow them — into new geographic ranges, including more southerly waters. Research published in Marine Ecology Progress Series documented range extensions for bull sharks into waters previously considered outside their typical distribution.
- The recovery of marine mammal populations. Fur seal and sea lion numbers along the southern and eastern Australian coastline have increased since commercial sealing ended and protections came into effect. White sharks follow their prey. More seals in new locations means more white sharks investigating those locations — which increasingly overlap with popular surf breaks.
What This Means for Ocean Users
None of this changes the fundamental statistical reality that the per-session risk of a serious shark encounter remains very low. What it does mean is that the geography of risk is shifting. Breaks that were historically low-risk because they sat outside the range of large shark species may no longer be. Remote locations that previously saw little large shark activity may now see more.
Staying informed about local conditions, recent sightings, and the environmental context of the breaks you surf or dive is more important than it has ever been. Apps like the Shark Smart app (NSW DPI) and equivalent state programs provide real-time detection data from tagged sharks.
The picture is not "more sharks." It is "more humans and sharks sharing a changing ocean." That framing leads to better decisions — for ocean safety, and for the conservation of a species that has far fewer breeding individuals than most people realise.
Shark Stop wetsuits are designed for ocean users who understand that the relationship between humans and sharks is complex, and that genuine preparedness is more useful than fear. See the full range here.